Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2b2…8016 world 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%16W / 41L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$3
world 30% +$8
sports 12% $0
politics 9% +$3
tech 2% −$3
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 38 +2.0% -7.7% 37% 3% -9.4%
all 57 +1.2% -8.4% 28% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 41
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage346d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $83 $81 −$2 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $91 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $260 +$1 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $82 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $131 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $111 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $111 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $83 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $93 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $82 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $93 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $100 −$5 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $53 −$3 -5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $445 +$1 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $124 +$2 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $141 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $79 −$8 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $49 +$4 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $126 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $21 +$17 +85%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $700 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $622 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jul 09 $146 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $81 8m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $3 8m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $91 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $91 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $36 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $47 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $83 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $70 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $82 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $90 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $90 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $68 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $68 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $52 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $89 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $80 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $79 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $79 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $75 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $54 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.99 · official $81.18 (match) · 207 history records