Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc2b1…187e crypto 659 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$172 (-2%) realized −$200 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate46%300W / 355L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day157.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$766
7 days+$505
14 days+$165
30 days−$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$1,244
sports 20% +$373
other 16% +$507
weather 0% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 466 -13.7% -22.0% 50% 16% -2.0%
≤30d 655 -12.7% -21.0% 46% 19% -13.6%
≤90d 655 -12.7% -21.0% 46% 19% -13.6%
all 655 -12.7% -21.0% 46% 19% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 19% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 10% -21.8%
15% -35.5% 9% -29.4%
20% -41.8% 7% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,028
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses300 / 355
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)655 / 659
History coverage18d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day157.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,028 +$28 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1,016 +$200 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $486 +$518 +107%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$38 -37%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$47 -46%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $262 +$49 +18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $91 +$52 +58%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $84 −$22 -26%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $260 +$98 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 16 $41 −$18 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 +$21 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $20 +$22 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$23 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$9 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 26¢ $18 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 81¢ $8 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ $10 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $68 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $654 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $49 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 89¢ $702 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $421 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 62¢ $303 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,004 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $64 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $55 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $193 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $89 22h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series SELL Carstensz 99¢ $310 22h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 99¢ $111 22h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 74¢ $151 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 24h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $144 37h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 56¢ $41 38h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 68¢ $50 38h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $358 38h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ $93 39h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ $65 39h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 62¢ $101 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,027.78 · official $1,027.78 (match) · 3353 history records