Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2af…63b4 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.2% -16.1% 66% 46% -16.5%
≤30d 35 -7.2% -16.1% 66% 46% -16.5%
≤90d 35 -7.2% -16.1% 66% 46% -16.5%
all 35 -7.2% -16.1% 66% 46% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 46% -16.5%
10% -24.1% 40% -24.5%
15% -31.4% 26% -31.8%
20% -38.2% 20% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$13 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$14 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$15 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $23 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $28 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 60 history records