Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2ac…5d31 politics 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$4
politics 25% −$1
other 24% −$2
economics 7% $0
crypto 4% +$1
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -11.1%
all 45 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -10.2%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.8%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage281d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $76 −$2 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $43 −$2 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $47 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $6 $0 -2%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $4 $0 -12%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 28 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $2 $0 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 05 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $5 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $2 $0 +10%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 8m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 8m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $43 8m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $48 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $43 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $5 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $34 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $8 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $12 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $35 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $28 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records