Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc2a7…5234 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$940 (+29%) realized +$940 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +137% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +114% what you keep after slip
Net edge+114%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$917
world 29% −$14
crypto 15% +$1
other 11% +$31
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+114.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +7.0% -3.2% 33% 33% -1.9%
≤90d 14 +136.9% +114.3% 64% 14% +16.3%
all 14 +136.9% +114.3% 64% 14% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +114.3% 14% +16.3%
10% +93.8% 14% +5.2%
15% +75.1% 14% -5.0%
20% +57.9% 14% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +137% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +287% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$35 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.4 per $1 lost it wins $14.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$940
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage79d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NATO article 5 before 2027? Jun 27 $65 $0 +0%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 19 $34 +$27 +81%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $28 −$16 -60%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 17 $488 +$7 +2%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May May 16 $489 +$1 +0%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) May 16 $48 +$952 +1983%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) May 14 $472 +$7 +2%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 13 $469 +$2 +0%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) Apr 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? Apr 26 $29 +$2 +7%
Spread: CA Juventud (-1.5) Apr 20 $394 +$5 +1%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 16 $387 $0 +0%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $302 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NATO article 5 before 2027? SELL Yes $32 1h
NATO article 5 before 2027? SELL Yes $33 1h
NATO article 5 before 2027? BUY Yes $33 2h
NATO article 5 before 2027? BUY Yes $32 2h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $31 7d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL Yes $25 7d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY Yes $16 8d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY Yes $17 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL Yes $5 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL Yes $6 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY Yes $14 9d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY Yes $13 9d
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) BUY Viking FK 98¢ $488 41d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May SELL No 99¢ $490 42d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May BUY No 99¢ $489 42d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Auckland FC $25 42d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Auckland FC $23 42d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 42d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $12 42d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 42d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 42d
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) BUY FC Machida Zelvia 98¢ $472 44d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 44d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $461 44d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $469 45d
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) BUY Real Oviedo $2 62d
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) BUY Real Oviedo $12 62d
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) BUY Real Oviedo $12 62d
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) BUY Real Oviedo $3 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records