Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2a6…2923 other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+5%) realized +$35 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$112
sports 24% +$42
crypto 15% −$111
world 1% +$11
tech 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 40% -5.1%
≤30d 53 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 40% -5.1%
≤90d 53 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 40% -5.1%
all 53 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 40% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 40% -5.1%
10% -22.0% 34% -14.1%
15% -29.6% 28% -22.4%
20% -36.5% 21% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $202 $216 +$14 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $55 +$4 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $47 $44 −$4 (-8%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 46¢ 48¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -92%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 +$11 +104%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$13 +47%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$9 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +60%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $6 +$44 +703%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 +$23 +108%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 +$23 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$31 +104%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 +$6 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 +$10 +141%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$13 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$18 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 45¢ $3 19m
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19m
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 19m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $22 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $22 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $9 20h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 20h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $7 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 81¢ $5 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $6 29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 29h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $28 2d
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $32 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $23 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $42 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $21 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.16 · official $340.16 (match) · 129 history records