Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2a5…efa9 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-11%) realized −$42 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$43
sports 7% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.2% -13.4% 62% 62% -21.3%
≤30d 13 -4.2% -13.4% 62% 62% -21.3%
≤90d 13 -4.2% -13.4% 62% 62% -21.3%
all 13 -4.2% -13.4% 62% 62% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 62% -21.3%
10% -21.6% 46% -28.8%
15% -29.2% 23% -35.7%
20% -36.2% 15% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$26 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 66¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$6 -29%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$11 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $27 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $22 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $62 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.12 · official $40.29 · 27 history records