Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2a4…895b crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,059 (-19%) realized −$1,059 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%33W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days−$1,246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,096
other 20% −$103
crypto 13% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +11.8% +1.1% 66% 51% +2.7%
≤30d 69 -18.8% -26.5% 48% 36% -31.7%
≤90d 69 -18.8% -26.5% 48% 36% -31.7%
all 69 -18.8% -26.5% 48% 36% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 36% -31.7%
10% -33.5% 29% -38.2%
15% -39.9% 25% -44.2%
20% -45.8% 14% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$60 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,059
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses33 / 36
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage21d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $621 +$30 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$22 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$27 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$141 +70%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $144 +$57 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- Jun 16 $27 −$22 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $55 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $15 −$4 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $105 +$2 +2%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $49 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $192 +$41 +21%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $105 −$38 -36%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $147 −$11 -8%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $332 −$179 -54%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $177 −$175 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $507 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $314 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $342 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $201 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records