Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc29a…70b1 politics 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,318 (-1%) realized −$1,319 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%25W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,030per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$66
other 33% −$146
sports 11% −$1,101
culture 4% −$5
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$3
economics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -1.8% -11.1% 7% 0% -10.4%
all 118 -5.9% -14.9% 21% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 8% -10.5%
10% -23.0% 8% -19.1%
15% -30.5% 6% -26.9%
20% -37.3% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,449) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized−$1,319
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses25 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,030
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $709 $710 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,290 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,631 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4,385 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,779 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,280 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,613 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,492 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $314 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $657 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,771 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $4,339 −$5 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $835 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,552 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $978 +$2 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $2,051 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 27 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,731 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,361 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,466 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,392 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,484 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,471 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $289 49m
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $290 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 22h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 24h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $329 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $330 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $217 9d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $217 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $354 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $354 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $709 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $849 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $850 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,446 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,449 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,163 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,200 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,202 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,250 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,252 16d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,153 17d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,155 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,448 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,449 20d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,229 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.71 · official $709.71 (match) · 394 history records