Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc299…8350 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$8
politics 18% +$1
other 15% −$1
sports 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 33% 17% -7.6%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 42% 8% -8.3%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 42% 8% -8.3%
all 33 +0.9% -8.7% 27% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 6% -8.8%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.78 per $1 lost it wins $9.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage266d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 01 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 25 $27 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $44 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $50 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $37 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.13 · official $49.88 (match) · 121 history records