Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc299…6bc5 crypto 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,211 (+2%) realized +$1,211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%128W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$566per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$92
14 days+$387
30 days+$985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.5% -7.3% 89% 11% -8.5%
≤30d 35 -0.7% -10.2% 91% 17% -6.6%
≤90d 85 -2.2% -11.5% 94% 7% -7.6%
all 134 -1.4% -10.8% 96% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -8.2%
10% -19.3% 0% -16.9%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$587) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×61.25 per $1 lost it wins $61.25
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses128 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage132d
Avg bet$566
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $65 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,476 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,635 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $358 +$31 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,588 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $139 +$17 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,560 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,556 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,528 +$31 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,503 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,483 +$20 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,291 +$191 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $587 +$18 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,267 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,097 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $867 +$99 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,154 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,122 +$32 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $996 +$126 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $894 +$102 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $875 +$19 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $830 +$41 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $804 +$30 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $791 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $738 +$52 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $705 +$33 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $697 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $692 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $691 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $671 +$19 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $664 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $645 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $606 +$38 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $598 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $596 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $589 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $219 +$20 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 06 $567 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $563 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $339 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 22? Apr 23 $553 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 21? Apr 22 $539 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 65¢ $63 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $327 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $234 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $468 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $75 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,635 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $107 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $146 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $86 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $94 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $12 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1,483 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $21 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $74 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,560 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 87¢ $1,557 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 514 history records