Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C2 0xc294…95ed crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$37 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +16.0% +4.9% 58% 58% +11.4%
≤30d 33 +16.0% +4.9% 58% 58% +11.4%
≤90d 33 +16.0% +4.9% 58% 58% +11.4%
all 33 +16.0% +4.9% 58% 58% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 58% +11.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.1% 58% +0.7%
15% -14.3% 58% -9.0%
20% -22.7% 58% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$32 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 51¢ 76¢ $54 $80 +$27 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $51 $1 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$46 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$47 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$45 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$41 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$38 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$36 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$45 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$38 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$40 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$38 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$35 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$33 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$32 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$27 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$25 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$23 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$30 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $54 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $55 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $48 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $44 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $44 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $42 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $42 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.96 · official $55.72 · 59 history records