Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc291…0ef5 crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$454 (+1%) realized +$1,236 · open −$782
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%80W / 56L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,422
7 days−$1,422
14 days−$1,422
30 days−$1,834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1,703
other 30% −$2,130
crypto 26% +$105
politics 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -37.2% -43.2% 0% 0% -42.9%
≤30d 8 -30.4% -37.0% 25% 25% -36.1%
≤90d 26 -14.5% -22.7% 38% 31% -31.1%
all 136 -9.6% -18.2% 59% 35% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 35% -8.2%
10% -26.1% 19% -17.0%
15% -33.2% 10% -25.0%
20% -39.8% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$87 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$1,897
Realized+$1,236
Unrealized−$782
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses80 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage171d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $2,678 $1,897 −$782 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,891 −$1,040 -55%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,965 −$382 -19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,258 +$180 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$17 +36%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Jun 13 $74 −$26 -35%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $653 −$297 -46%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Jun 08 $80 −$40 -51%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $280 −$246 -88%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? May 22 $9 −$6 -66%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $50 −$6 -11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $300 −$38 -13%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $130 −$20 -15%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $120 −$7 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $150 −$29 -19%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $180 −$39 -22%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $100 −$18 -18%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $150 +$26 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 09 $34 +$12 +34%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $50 +$14 +29%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $200 +$103 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 04 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 04 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 04 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 04 $2 $0 +7%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $110 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 28 $150 −$149 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 28 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 28 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 28 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 28 $450 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 28 $300 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 28 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 27 $5 +$19 +373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 27 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 26 $350 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 26 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 26 $205 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 92¢ $401 46m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 8¢ $416 48m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $667 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $646 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 21¢ $822 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $219 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $624 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,430 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,438 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $805 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $740 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $48 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof SELL No 17¢ $48 16d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 87¢ $2 16d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $453 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $317 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $40 21d
Natural Disaster in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $40 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $34 21d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 38d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof BUY No 28¢ $14 61d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $417 67d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 67d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 67d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 67d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 67d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,896.79 · official $1,896.79 (match) · 612 history records