Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc291…2766 crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,216 (-10%) realized −$1,481 · open +$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%60W / 79L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$175
14 days−$414
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$66
crypto 29% −$1,209
sports 22% −$127
politics 1% −$50
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -48.6% -53.5% 20% 20% -34.0%
≤30d 11 -53.3% -57.8% 18% 18% -51.8%
≤90d 14 -51.9% -56.5% 21% 21% -40.6%
all 139 -10.1% -18.7% 43% 36% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 36% -22.3%
10% -26.4% 30% -29.7%
15% -33.5% 21% -36.5%
20% -40.1% 15% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$58 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized−$1,481
Unrealized+$265
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses60 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage338d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Yes 15¢ 58¢ $93 $358 +$266 (+287%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $214 −$80 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$20 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $91 +$144 +158%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $185 −$3 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $243 −$239 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $566 −$566 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $980 +$583 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 21 $674 −$669 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $200 +$103 +52%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $297 −$297 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Dec 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $543 +$180 +33%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $272 +$271 +100%
New Haven Chargers vs. Fordham Rams Dec 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 12 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Los Ratones (BO1) Dec 11 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Dec 11 $229 +$76 +33%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 11 $101 +$128 +127%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $684 −$340 -50%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO1) Dec 06 $2 $0 -10%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $838 +$81 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Celtics vs. Wizards Dec 05 $241 +$43 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 6PM ET Dec 04 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-12-04? Dec 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $193 +$86 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 8AM ET Dec 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8AM ET Dec 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 01 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5AM ET Dec 01 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? Dec 01 $127 −$3 -2%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $113 −$113 -100%
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Nov 30 $107 +$7 +6%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $111 −$111 -100%
Oregon vs. Washington Nov 30 $89 +$33 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $95 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 4h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $30 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $91 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 28¢ $94 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $93 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 39¢ $243 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 15d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $566 43d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 62¢ $980 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $674 89d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 167d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 167d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 167d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 167d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.30 · official $414.79 · 700 history records