Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc291…0220 other 669 markets active 2h ago coverage 508d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 508d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,666 (-21%) realized −$6,658 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%227W / 439L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$10
14 days−$68
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1,428
crypto 23% −$677
sports 18% −$211
politics 7% −$702
world 7% −$1,086
tech 2% +$229
finance 1% +$347
culture 1% +$23
economics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.4% -13.5% 33% 33% -4.9%
≤30d 12 -27.1% -34.0% 33% 33% -27.0%
≤90d 33 -39.4% -45.2% 30% 30% -16.1%
all 666 -20.5% -28.0% 34% 32% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 32% -19.5%
10% -34.9% 28% -27.2%
15% -41.2% 24% -34.3%
20% -47.0% 20% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$31 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

508d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$6,658
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses227 / 439
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)666 / 669
History coverage508d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-76%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 +$50 +165%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$38 +64%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$39 -54%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$15 -50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $98 −$97 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 31 $12 +$8 +60%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Apr 19 $78 −$36 -46%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 202 Apr 16 $199 +$31 +16%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 Apr 15 $96 −$3 -3%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026 Apr 15 $106 +$76 +71%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 Apr 13 $160 −$18 -11%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026 Apr 13 $63 +$39 +62%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026 Apr 12 $14 +$8 +55%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany vs. Ghana end in a draw? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner Mar 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 6PM ET Mar 29 $52 +$39 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 7PM ET Mar 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Northern Ireland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe Mar 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinner Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026 Mar 23 $117 +$69 +59%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $272 −$272 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Feb 15 $26 +$38 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 06 $48 −$24 -51%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Feb 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Feb 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of June 202 Feb 02 $192 +$109 +57%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026 Feb 01 $101 +$79 +78%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jan 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $27 +$27 +102%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $76 +$44 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $81 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $31 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $22 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $31 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $98 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 8d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 18d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 18d
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton BUY Flavio Cobolli 28¢ $37 60d
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 71¢ $37 60d
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $41 60d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 202 SELL No 77¢ $116 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.59 · official $11.83 · 3500 history records