Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc290…b9d0 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
other 26% +$1
politics 4% +$1
sports 2% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.7% -7.9% 25% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.2%
all 25 -3.0% -12.2% 40% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 4% -9.4%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage465d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $38 +$3 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $80 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $2 $0 +21%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $3 $0 -4%
Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $2 $0 -4%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $5 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $35 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $40 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $40 42h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $38 45h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $36 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $31 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $5 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $7 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $12 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $34 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $34 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $11 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $28 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records