Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc28e…2627 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%7W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$1
world 21% −$9
politics 18% −$1
sports 13% −$1
economics 10% $0
weather 7% −$2
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 6 -8.8% -17.5% 17% 0% -15.3%
≤90d 7 -7.6% -16.4% 14% 0% -14.1%
all 32 -7.8% -16.6% 22% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -11.3%
10% -24.6% 0% -19.8%
15% -31.9% 0% -27.5%
20% -38.5% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses7 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage320d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $39 −$7 -18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Sep 08 $1 $0 -36%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Aug 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $2 $0 -22%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Aug 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on August 9? Aug 08 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 43m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 12h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $22 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $39 29d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 31d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 31d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 31d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 287d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 311d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $5 312d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $11 312d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $39 312d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $5 312d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? SELL No 99¢ $5 312d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 99¢ $5 313d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $50 313d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $21 313d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $29 313d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 99¢ $6 314d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records