Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C2 0xc28d…c177 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$100 (+9%) realized +$102 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate71%34W / 14L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$26
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$56
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 14% -22.5%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 29% -17.2%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 62% 31% -17.0%
all 48 +8.2% -2.1% 71% 46% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 46% -4.2%
10% -11.5% 33% -13.4%
15% -20.0% 31% -21.8%
20% -27.9% 31% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses34 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage130d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 96¢ 90¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $38 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$2 +10%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Norwich City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 22 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 21 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 13 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 12 $90 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 12 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 12 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 12 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 11 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 11 $48 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 11 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 11 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 11 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 11 $16 +$15 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 11 $15 +$12 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $37 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $34 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $32 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 14d
Norwich City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 57d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.50 · official $35.65 · 118 history records