Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc28d…1773 world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5,501 (+37%) realized +$3,926 · open +$1,575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$879per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$7,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$4,285
other 28% +$1,188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.0% -66.5% 33% 33% -6.1%
≤30d 3 -63.0% -66.5% 33% 33% -6.1%
≤90d 6 -31.0% -37.6% 50% 50% +19.8%
all 8 +19.0% +7.7% 62% 62% +31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 62% +31.9%
10% -2.6% 50% +19.3%
15% -12.0% 50% +7.8%
20% -20.7% 38% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$904 vs −$207 · ×4.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.29 per $1 lost it wins $7.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$7,951
Realized+$3,926
Unrealized+$1,575
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)8 / 17
History coverage112d
Avg bet$879
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 84¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,354 +$354 (+18%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 84¢ 95¢ $1,500 $1,703 +$203 (+14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 64¢ 88¢ $1,200 $1,641 +$441 (+37%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 21¢ 60¢ $300 $850 +$550 (+183%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 20¢ 22¢ $300 $333 +$33 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $177 $175 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Jun 16 $1,700 +$189 +11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 10 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $3,200 +$2,157 +67%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $2,000 +$710 +36%
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? Feb 28 $85 +$165 +194%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $902 +$1,298 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,951.15 · official $7,947.58 (match) · 27 history records