Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc28c…36f3 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 512d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days−$405
14 days−$405
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$521
sports 49% +$115
tech 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -49.1% -54.0% 25% 25% -19.5%
≤30d 4 -49.1% -54.0% 25% 25% -19.5%
≤90d 4 -49.1% -54.0% 25% 25% -19.5%
all 5 -43.1% -48.5% 20% 20% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 20% -19.6%
10% -53.4% 0% -27.3%
15% -57.9% 0% -34.3%
20% -62.0% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$161 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage512d
Avg bet$717
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $203 −$113 -56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,540 +$228 +15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,415 −$161 -11%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $369 −$360 -97%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $55 −$10 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $83 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $83 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $72 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $97 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $59 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $76 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $70 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $151 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $111 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $74 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $29 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $31 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $344 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $698 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,388 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,255 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,415 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $195 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $175 4d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL No 0¢ $45 511d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $18 511d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 0¢ $37 512d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records