Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc289…04f1 world 299 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized +$10 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate76%203W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$35
14 days−$43
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$22
crypto 15% +$7
other 14% −$47
sports 11% −$17
finance 5% +$3
politics 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -2.6% -11.9% 70% 41% -14.7%
≤30d 213 +0.5% -9.1% 76% 37% -9.0%
≤90d 267 -0.9% -10.3% 76% 33% -9.0%
all 267 -0.9% -10.3% 76% 33% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 33% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 18% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 12% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses203 / 64
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions32
Markets (closed)267 / 299
History coverage54d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 72¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 64¢ 88¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+39%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 97¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 84¢ 97¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+16%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 64¢ $15 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 80¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 81¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 58¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 72¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 73¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 89¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 93¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 12¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-86%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 84¢ 63¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$3 +22%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +128%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $22 −$7 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +96%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $46 −$17 -37%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$8 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +17%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $12 +$6 +47%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $38 +$15 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $13 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 5h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $2 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 3¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 82¢ $2 5h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $16 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 5h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 5h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 5h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 5h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 5h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $3 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $17 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $2 5h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 99¢ $3 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $4 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $2 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $2 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.62 · official $196.81 (match) · 2675 history records