Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc288…ff1e crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$130 (-15%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$105
14 days−$62
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 54% -32.7%
≤30d 20 +9.4% -1.0% 60% 60% -15.1%
≤90d 20 +9.4% -1.0% 60% 60% -15.1%
all 20 +9.4% -1.0% 60% 60% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 60% -15.1%
10% -10.5% 55% -23.3%
15% -19.1% 50% -30.7%
20% -27.0% 50% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$53 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage15d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$107 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $18 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records