Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc287…9448 politics 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
other 24% +$3
politics 21% $0
finance 7% +$4
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 10 +4.4% -5.5% 60% 10% -8.4%
≤90d 10 +4.4% -5.5% 60% 10% -8.4%
all 30 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 7% -8.7%
10% -16.6% 3% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 3% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.85 per $1 lost it wins $6.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage255d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 +$1 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $29 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $96 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $86 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $7 +$3 +45%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 28 $55 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $53 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $49 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $52 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $51 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $51 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $39 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $30 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.20 · official $52.20 (match) · 120 history records