Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc283…c8db crypto 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+0%) realized +$80 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%140W / 12L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 29 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 0% -9.2%
all 152 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.34 per $1 lost it wins $5.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses140 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage269d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $258 $259 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $257 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $256 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $255 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $252 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 28 $248 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $247 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $245 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 06 $245 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $244 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $243 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $242 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $203 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $238 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $237 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 31 $236 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 31 $235 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $234 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $234 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $233 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $233 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $232 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $231 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $228 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $228 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $228 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $227 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $227 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $226 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $226 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $226 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $225 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $225 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $225 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $225 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $225 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $223 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $223 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $221 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $221 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $258 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $257 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $256 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $256 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $256 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $255 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $252 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $250 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? SELL No 100¢ $251 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $250 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $250 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $248 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $248 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $247 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $245 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $245 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $244 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $243 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $243 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $242 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $203 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $37 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $240 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $238 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $238 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $237 78d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $201 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.91 · official $258.78 (match) · 324 history records