Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc281…af82 other 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$819 (-9%) realized −$789 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%168W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$264
14 days−$390
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$220
crypto 22% −$357
sports 14% −$279
economics 7% −$90
tech 3% −$11
politics 3% +$83
world 3% +$21
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -21.2% -28.7% 48% 36% -34.6%
≤30d 75 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 37% -27.0%
≤90d 144 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 33% -21.8%
all 402 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 33% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 33% -17.7%
10% -29.6% 27% -25.6%
15% -36.4% 21% -32.8%
20% -42.7% 17% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$789
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses168 / 234
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)402 / 411
History coverage259d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $34 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $31 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +57%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $71 −$65 -91%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $32 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 26h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $20 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.95 · official $182.96 (match) · 870 history records