Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc27f…2a25 sports 473 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,512 (+4%) realized +$1,480 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%273W / 196L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$501est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$754now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$518
7 days+$519
14 days+$460
30 days+$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,836
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +34.7% +21.8% 80% 53% -2.1%
≤30d 143 +12.4% +1.7% 59% 54% -1.8%
≤90d 469 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 48% -5.5%
all 469 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 48% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 48% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 39% -14.6%
15% -22.3% 32% -22.8%
20% -29.9% 25% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$37 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$754
Realized+$1,480
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses273 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$501
Open positions4
Markets (closed)469 / 473
History coverage72d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 76¢ 81¢ $531 $570 +$40 (+7%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 69¢ 100¢ $88 $127 +$39 (+44%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 77¢ 100¢ $43 $56 +$13 (+29%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $500 +$340 +68%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $1,722 +$46 +3%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $1,698 −$298 -18%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $132 +$357 +270%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $243 −$139 -57%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $225 +$71 +31%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $85 +$14 +16%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $411 +$15 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $42 +$7 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $1,009 +$28 +3%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $41 +$79 +194%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $42 +$31 +72%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $85 +$10 +12%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $39 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $28 +$2 +9%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $86 +$82 +96%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $131 +$49 +37%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $218 +$132 +61%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $119 −$58 -48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $346 −$115 -33%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $46 +$32 +68%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $255 +$145 +57%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$27 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $157 +$91 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $233 +$187 +80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $264 −$88 -33%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $125 −$40 -32%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $117 −$38 -33%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $232 −$37 -16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$37 -27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $62 +$208 +339%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $163 +$72 +44%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $78 +$29 +37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $559 +$41 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $90 +$50 +56%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $240 −$68 -28%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $147 −$47 -32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $138 −$22 -16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $40 +$22 +54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $41 +$22 +55%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $40 +$25 +61%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $285 +$57 +20%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 71¢ $19 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 75¢ $188 9m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $114 12m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $115 12m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $97 27m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $4 47m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $16 47m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $8 47m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $8 47m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $85 47m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 8¢ $8 53m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $28 55m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $80 58m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $15 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $4 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 23¢ $13 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 23¢ $47 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $45 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $44 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $44 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $128 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $26 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $44 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $30 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $0 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $13 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $61 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $753.74 · official $662.81 · 3105 history records