Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc27d…eae4 crypto 635 markets active 8h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-4%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate70%444W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$15
14 days−$21
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$130
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 -3.1% -12.3% 70% 70% -11.1%
≤30d 635 -2.3% -11.6% 70% 69% -14.0%
≤90d 635 -2.3% -11.6% 70% 69% -14.0%
all 635 -2.3% -11.6% 70% 69% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 69% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 61% -22.3%
15% -27.8% 40% -29.8%
20% -34.9% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses444 / 191
Open positions0
Markets (closed)635 / 635
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 635 Trades
no open positions (183 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1091 history records