Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc27d…fa99 world 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$39
politics 16% $0
other 14% −$17
sports 5% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 12 +166.2% +140.9% 33% 8% -4.8%
all 35 +53.6% +39.0% 40% 6% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.0% 6% -7.9%
10% +25.7% 6% -16.7%
15% +13.6% 6% -24.7%
20% +2.4% 6% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage257d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $87 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $7 $0 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $197 +$9 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $2 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $71 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2 +$35 +2233%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $50 −$3 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Nov 10 $1 $0 -13%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 27 $4 $0 -6%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Oct 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -60%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $3 +$1 +55%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $63 24m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $19 24m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $3 24m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $87 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $4 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $78 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $78 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $49 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $48 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $56 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $65 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $2 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $22 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $46 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $36 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $39 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $70 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $17 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $25 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $36 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records