Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C2 0xc278…e91f sports 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$794 (+14%) realized +$794 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%133W / 134L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$20
14 days+$237
30 days+$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$642
politics 6% +$19
other 2% +$29
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 43% -12.9%
≤30d 132 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 43% +8.9%
≤90d 206 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 47% +5.2%
all 267 +13.3% +2.5% 50% 43% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 43% +3.5%
10% -7.3% 39% -6.4%
15% -16.2% 35% -15.5%
20% -24.5% 33% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$794
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses133 / 134
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage150d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$3 -5%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 +$8 +114%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1 +$5 +388%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $10 +$15 +145%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $5 +$4 +71%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 13 $11 +$10 +91%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $15 +$8 +52%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$8 +161%
Ben Shelton vs. Marcos Giron: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Kamil Majchrzak: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Benjamin Bonzi vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$9 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 11 $5 +$5 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 32¢ $5 14h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 36¢ $10 15h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 20¢ $1 16h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Shuai Zhang 29¢ $5 18h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $5 18h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ $5 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $7 36h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 54¢ $5 38h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 12¢ $5 38h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 36¢ $5 40h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 37¢ $5 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 39¢ $10 47h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 41¢ $10 2d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 46¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 43¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 43¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili SELL Nikoloz Basilashvili 95¢ $25 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos BUY Bangladesh 55¢ $5 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 38¢ $10 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 53¢ $10 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 48¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 44¢ $5 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 48¢ $10 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins BUY Australia 51¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 765 history records