Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc278…a116 sports 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$713 (-9%) realized −$582 · open −$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%53W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day40.3pace
Fees−$247est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$341
7 days−$330
14 days−$909
30 days−$750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$748
other 4% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -18.9% -26.7% 31% 27% -28.4%
≤30d 210 -7.4% -16.2% 25% 20% -17.1%
≤90d 210 -7.4% -16.2% 25% 20% -17.1%
all 210 -7.4% -16.2% 25% 20% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 20% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 15% -25.0%
15% -31.5% 10% -32.3%
20% -38.2% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$582
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses53 / 157
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions111
Markets (closed)210 / 207
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day40.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 111 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 25¢ $57 $38 −$19 (-34%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+157%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+190%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $29 $2 −$27 (-92%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 54¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? Yes 56¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-89%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 25¢ 11¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-58%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027? Yes 22¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 36¢ 29¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? Yes 31¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary Jun 16 $0 $0 +138%
Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 16 $0 $0 -200%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 16 $1 −$1 -200%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $37 −$17 -46%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $86 −$14 -16%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $71 +$3 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $8 −$1 -6%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $30 −$18 -58%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $68 +$8 +11%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $36 −$8 -24%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $28 −$26 -95%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $64 −$37 -58%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $35 −$8 -24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $111 −$10 -9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $17 +$16 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $17 +$29 +172%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 −$10 -197%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $5 −$10 -197%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $15 −$10 -64%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 −$2 -194%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $16 −$31 -197%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $18 −$35 -197%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $22 −$44 -196%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $49 −$37 -75%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $9 −$17 -194%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $15 +$4 +27%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 −$3 -60%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $11 +$2 +14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $9 +$3 +35%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $13 −$1 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $39 −$2 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $21 −$1 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $14 −$1 -8%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $21 −$1 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $23 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Betsy McCaughey win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican prim SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Brent Bien win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary elect SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Kristin Robbins win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primar SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Will McBride win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary el SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will David Tulley win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary el SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 2¢ $1 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 1¢ $1 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 3¢ $2 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 7¢ $19 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 11¢ $30 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 68¢ $5 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $20 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 35¢ $8 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 10¢ $1 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 11¢ $2 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 29¢ $12 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 32¢ $30 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $20 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $18 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $35 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $33 7h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 23¢ $8 7h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 36¢ $13 7h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 40¢ $17 8h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 40¢ $1 8h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 0¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.83 · official $163.25 (match) · 3500 history records