Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc277…7fd2 other 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%22W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 24% −$4
politics 18% −$2
economics 10% −$1
crypto 8% −$2
world 5% $0
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 5 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 196 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses22 / 174
Open positions0
Markets (closed)196 / 196
History coverage174d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 196 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 25 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $32 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 24 $105 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $33 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $140 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $35 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 9h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $17 12d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $18 13d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 94¢ $33 20d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $33 20d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $31 27d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $25 27d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $6 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 40d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 41d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $35 93d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $35 94d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $31 94d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $31 94d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $28 94d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $28 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 95d
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $32 95d
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $32 95d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 95d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 95d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 95d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 95d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 95d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 96d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $33 96d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $33 97d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $29 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 706 history records