Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc26e…2be1 other 9 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-20%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$6
world 13% $0
crypto 13% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.3% -36.9% 40% 40% -42.2%
≤30d 5 -30.3% -36.9% 40% 40% -42.2%
≤90d 5 -30.3% -36.9% 40% 40% -42.2%
all 5 -30.3% -36.9% 40% 40% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 40% -42.2%
10% -43.0% 40% -47.7%
15% -48.5% 40% -52.8%
20% -53.5% 40% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.11 · official $36.11 (match) · 11 history records