Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc26e…a76d other 1566 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1563W / 3L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$19
sports 43% +$5
world 1% −$7
weather 1% +$1
politics 1% −$5
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 553 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 1547 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 1566 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1563 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1566 / 1566
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1566 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Aguiard vs. Ellis: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Blus/Sadzik vs. Diez/Lopez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Petretic vs. Fontenel: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mika Petkovic vs. Pierre Antoine Tailleu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Gille/Verbeek vs. Gill/Harris: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Wawrzkiewicz (-1.5) vs Straszewska (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Doumbia/Polmans vs Cabral/Miedler Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Estevez vs. Rossini: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bass/Duncan vs. Chandrasekar/Yuzuki: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Petra Sedlackova vs. Urszula Radwanska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Snoussi vs Rodenas Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Brescia: Completed Match: Struplova/Zelnickova vs Kladivova/Laboutkova Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Gutierrez vs. Paez: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Drame vs. Mladenovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Tsitsipas vs. Bayo: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Guilleme vs. Ciavarella: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Covato vs. Karma: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Parenti vs. Berto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Sugiyama vs. Nishiwaki: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Ben Old: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Sugiyama vs. Nishiwaki: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Saeid Ezatolahi: 3+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Callum McCowatt: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mohammad Mohebbi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ben Waine: 3+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Lachlan Bayliss: 3+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Kerry Carpenter: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Musab Al Juwayr: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Brian Rodríguez: 5+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Darwin Núñez: 4+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Salem Al Dawsari: 5+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Kyle Higashioka: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ryan Gusto: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Facundo Pellistri: 5+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 100¢ $5 1h
Aguiard vs. Ellis: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 1h
Blus/Sadzik vs. Diez/Lopez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) BUY GenOne 100¢ $5 2h
Petretic vs. Fontenel: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Mika Petkovic vs. Pierre Antoine Tailleu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 3h
Gille/Verbeek vs. Gill/Harris: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 100¢ $5 4h
Set Handicap: Wawrzkiewicz (-1.5) vs Straszewska (+1.5) BUY Straszewska 100¢ $5 5h
Set 1 Winner: Doumbia/Polmans vs Cabral/Miedler BUY Doumbia/Polmans 100¢ $5 5h
Estevez vs. Rossini: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 7h
First Blood in Game 2? BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $5 8h
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 8h
Bass/Duncan vs. Chandrasekar/Yuzuki: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 8h
Set 1 Winner: Snoussi vs Rodenas BUY Rodenas 100¢ $5 9h
Brescia: Completed Match: Struplova/Zelnickova vs Kladivova/Laboutkova BUY Yes 99¢ $5 10h
Petra Sedlackova vs. Urszula Radwanska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 11h
Gutierrez vs. Paez: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
Drame vs. Mladenovic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
Tsitsipas vs. Bayo: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
Guilleme vs. Ciavarella: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 12h
Covato vs. Karma: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 13h
Parenti vs. Berto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 13h
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 100¢ $5 13h
Sugiyama vs. Nishiwaki: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 14h
Sugiyama vs. Nishiwaki: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 15h
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? BUY No 88¢ $4 15h
Ben Old: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records