Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C2 0xc26c…d532 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,900 (-72%) realized −$8,563 · open −$337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$3,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 226d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$5,000
politics 31% −$3,900
other 28% −$337
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1,780 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$3,062
Realized−$8,563
Unrealized−$337
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)5 / 21
History coverage226d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $500 $467 −$33 (-7%)
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $300 $253 −$47 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $250 $229 −$21 (-8%)
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $250 $191 −$59 (-24%)
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $199 $183 −$17 (-8%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-10%)
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $171 −$29 (-14%)
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $146 −$54 (-27%)
Will Jason Day win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $102 1h
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 1h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 1h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $257 1h
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 1h
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 1h
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 1h
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 1h
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Jason Day win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $309 1h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 1h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $257 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $257 1h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,000 158d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,500 158d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,500 158d
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 BUY No 6¢ $1,000 225d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 8¢ $250 225d
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $300 225d
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 BUY No 17¢ $1,300 225d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 8¢ $50 225d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 8¢ $1,000 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,062.29 · official $3,066.50 (match) · 26 history records