Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc26a…563c crypto 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%120W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day66.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$99
other 3% −$10
sports 1% +$4
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 +6.3% -3.8% 48% 47% -14.5%
≤30d 252 +6.3% -3.8% 48% 47% -14.5%
≤90d 252 +6.3% -3.8% 48% 47% -14.5%
all 252 +6.3% -3.8% 48% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 47% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 45% -22.7%
15% -21.4% 41% -30.2%
20% -29.1% 36% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses120 / 132
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)252 / 262
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day66.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 51¢ 60¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$7 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$18 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$11 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +488%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +733%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +125%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $17 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $15 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.54 · official $46.54 (match) · 531 history records