Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C2 0xc269…9b23 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$1
other 40% −$1
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage180d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $96 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $196 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $392 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $196 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $196 $0 +0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 10 $196 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 28 $196 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $196 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $189 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 30 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 12h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 14d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 14d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $95 28d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $96 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 39d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 44d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 45d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $96 50d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $96 51d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $97 70d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 70d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $98 73d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $98 73d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $196 90d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $196 91d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $196 97d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $196 98d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 100d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 101d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $196 103d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $196 103d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 104d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 105d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $196 107d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $196 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records