Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc267…0e15 weather 819 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+4%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate31%251W / 566L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$41
crypto 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 434 +3.2% -6.6% 20% 4% -4.8%
≤90d 817 +1.9% -7.8% 31% 9% -7.4%
all 817 +1.9% -7.8% 31% 9% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 9% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 5% -16.3%
15% -24.7% 3% -24.4%
20% -32.1% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses251 / 566
Open positions2
Markets (closed)817 / 819
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 817 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 95¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.75 · official $3.30 · 3500 history records