Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc266…383b crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-26%) realized −$55 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$54
crypto 19% −$42
weather 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.8% -37.4% 44% 44% -53.8%
≤30d 9 -30.8% -37.4% 44% 44% -53.8%
≤90d 9 -30.8% -37.4% 44% 44% -53.8%
all 9 -30.8% -37.4% 44% 44% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 44% -53.8%
10% -43.4% 44% -58.2%
15% -48.9% 33% -62.2%
20% -53.9% 22% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 43¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.39 · official $133.41 (match) · 19 history records