Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc263…9325 crypto 1402 markets active 7d ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,203 (-3%) realized −$3,203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate85%1197W / 215L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$386
14 days−$542
30 days−$2,969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$1,029
weather 32% −$2,502
other 9% +$1,210
finance 2% +$63
politics 1% +$24
sports 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -64.7% -68.0% 31% 6% -27.6%
≤30d 727 -9.3% -18.0% 78% 20% -13.4%
≤90d 1399 -1.5% -10.9% 85% 22% -11.5%
all 1412 -1.6% -10.9% 85% 22% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 22% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 7% -20.0%
15% -27.2% 2% -27.7%
20% -34.4% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$37 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$3,203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1197 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1412 / 1402
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1412 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $501 −$448 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $501 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $502 +$31 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 −$39 -39%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 −$87 -86%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $501 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2,014 +$199 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $501 −$473 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $102 −$45 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $501 −$146 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 09 $2,000 +$1,020 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $403 −$200 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $501 +$29 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $501 +$22 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $502 +$38 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $503 −$500 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $500 +$8 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 08 $501 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $501 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 08 $501 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6? Jun 08 $501 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $101 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? SELL No 9¢ $24 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $206 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $212 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $516 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $533 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? SELL No 12¢ $29 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 93¢ $502 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? SELL No 58¢ $61 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $501 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $501 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $31 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $69 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? SELL No 12¢ $14 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 81¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? SELL Down 100¢ $2,212 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? SELL No 6¢ $28 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 97¢ $501 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $110 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $209 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? SELL No 40¢ $57 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 93¢ $1,005 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $501 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 68¢ $102 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? SELL No 69¢ $356 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 91¢ $100 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $501 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 88¢ $807 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 89¢ $101 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $208 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $206 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.64 · official $23.64 (match) · 3500 history records