Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc263…6c0a sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%135W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$111
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$45
other 11% +$11
crypto 9% −$20
world 8% −$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -1.6% -11.0% 66% 55% -11.9%
≤30d 205 -1.6% -11.0% 66% 50% -13.8%
≤90d 205 -1.6% -11.0% 66% 50% -13.8%
all 205 -1.6% -11.0% 66% 50% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 50% -13.8%
10% -19.5% 35% -22.1%
15% -27.3% 28% -29.6%
20% -34.4% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses135 / 70
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)205 / 211
History coverage23d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 73¢ 98¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 76¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 74¢ 20¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $71 −$5 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 +$10 +186%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 38m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $5 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $16 2h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 61¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.46 · official $46.47 (match) · 542 history records