Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc262…ea24 crypto 532 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate73%386W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$52
sports 3% −$4
other 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -26.9% -33.9% 50% 25% -26.9%
≤30d 35 -12.0% -20.3% 51% 43% -21.6%
≤90d 528 -4.1% -13.2% 73% 45% -13.1%
all 532 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 45% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -13.1%
10% -21.7% 29% -21.4%
15% -29.2% 17% -29.0%
20% -36.2% 9% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses386 / 146
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)532 / 532
History coverage207d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 532 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 +$1 +113%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 +$1 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 +$1 +73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1 +$1 +97%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 +$1 +67%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 +$1 +60%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3 −$3 -88%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1 $0 -22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 +$1 +97%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $3 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Alliance (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fina May 25 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 15 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Game Master 48¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 55¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 64¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 43h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $2 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 61¢ $1 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $2 8d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 46¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 46¢ $1 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $1 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1104 history records