Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc260…68df sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,005 (+25%) realized +$2,014 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%41W / 27L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$870
7 days+$1,802
14 days+$1,802
30 days+$1,802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$515
other 17% +$1,464
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +74.7% +58.1% 83% 83% +66.4%
≤30d 6 +74.7% +58.1% 83% 83% +66.4%
≤90d 14 +9.1% -1.3% 50% 50% +14.5%
all 68 +9.0% -1.4% 60% 49% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 49% +13.4%
10% -10.8% 46% +2.5%
15% -19.4% 40% -7.4%
20% -27.3% 37% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$93 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$2,014
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses41 / 27
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage147d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $182 $180 −$2 (-1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-46%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $676 +$870 +129%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $204 +$596 +291%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $466 +$138 +30%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $130 −$127 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $350 +$80 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $322 +$246 +76%
Will MFK Skalica win on 2026-05-02? May 07 $1 +$1 +101%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 05 $50 +$44 +90%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 03 $24 −$24 -98%
Casemiro: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $692 −$692 -100%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series Apr 09 $80 −$10 -12%
AHL: Milwaukee Admirals vs. Cleveland Monsters Apr 04 $231 −$231 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $240 −$240 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $191 +$183 +96%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $504 +$452 +90%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Kings vs. Blue Jackets Mar 18 $30 +$2 +7%
Bruins vs. Capitals Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 18 $211 −$211 -100%
Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Mar 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Mar 18 $105 −$105 -100%
CEHL: Vitkovice vs. Karlovy Vary Mar 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Spread: FK Pardubice (-2.5) Mar 14 $9 +$1 +10%
CEHL: Motor Ceske Budejovice vs. Kometa Mar 13 $161 +$274 +170%
CEHL: Olomouc vs. Trinec Mar 12 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $15 +$2 +12%
CEHL: Kometa vs. Motor Ceske Budejovice Mar 11 $299 −$299 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Mar 10 $146 +$297 +203%
CEHL: Trinec vs. Olomouc Mar 10 $78 +$22 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 09 $219 +$103 +47%
RC Celta de Vigo leading at halftime? Mar 07 $200 +$103 +52%
CEHL: Olomouc vs. Motor Ceske Budejovice Mar 04 $211 +$145 +69%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5 Feb 26 $29 +$1 +2%
Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 12.5 Feb 25 $20 +$10 +53%
Al Horford: Points O/U 10.5 Feb 25 $20 +$10 +54%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 8.5 Feb 24 $18 −$8 -44%
Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 Feb 24 $20 −$8 -43%
Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 Feb 24 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Keyonte George: Points O/U 14.5 Feb 23 $18 +$9 +47%
Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 8.5 Feb 22 $19 +$2 +8%
Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $17 +$13 +72%
Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $20 −$5 -26%
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Feb 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Caleb Martin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Feb 12 $5 +$4 +80%
Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 Feb 12 $6 $0 -7%
Caleb Martin: Points O/U 6.5 Feb 12 $6 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $184 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $290 47h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $386 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 25¢ $204 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 76¢ $1 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $2 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $2 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $3 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $33 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $77 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $77 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $116 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $32 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $22 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $23 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $78 4d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $130 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $322 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $350 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 21d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 21d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will MFK Skalica win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 44d
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $50 46d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $24 46d
Casemiro: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 83¢ $17 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.18 · official $199.18 (match) · 213 history records