Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc25f…1b2d other 33 markets active 1d ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-61%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$40
other 47% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -31.4% -37.9% 21% 21% -36.8%
≤30d 19 -31.4% -37.9% 21% 21% -36.8%
≤90d 19 -31.4% -37.9% 21% 21% -36.8%
all 20 -34.8% -41.0% 20% 20% -79.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 20% -79.6%
10% -46.7% 20% -81.6%
15% -51.8% 15% -83.3%
20% -56.5% 15% -85.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Open positions13
Markets (closed)20 / 33
History coverage429d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Elon out of Trump administration before July? Apr 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.67 · official $13.67 (match) · 40 history records