Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc25e…180c other 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 731d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$142 (-2%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate91%163W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$37
politics 21% −$61
crypto 20% −$3
world 11% −$25
finance 4% +$2
sports 3% +$1
tech 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 15 -11.1% -19.6% 87% 0% -16.0%
all 180 -3.3% -12.5% 91% 1% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 1% -11.0%
10% -20.9% 1% -19.5%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

731d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses163 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 182
History coverage731d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 06 $53 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May? May 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May? May 14 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April? Apr 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 21 $100 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $149 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 15 $70 −$53 -76%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $127 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 24? Mar 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-22? Mar 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? Mar 04 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Oman in March? Mar 03 $209 +$2 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 03 $210 $0 +0%
Will Amazon reach $300 in February? Feb 28 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $210 $0 +0%
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Bowling Green Falcons Feb 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will BP (BP) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $120 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more? Feb 04 $60 $0 +0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? Jan 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun Jan 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)? Jan 16 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 11, 2026? Jan 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 10, 2026? Jan 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on January 9? Jan 10 $19 $0 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? Jan 10 $23 $0 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6? Jan 09 $25 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 01 $22 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $29 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28? Dec 31 $20 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31? Dec 12 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Dec 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Nov 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 06 $21 +$1 +3%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 06 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8PM ET Oct 28 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 24d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 35d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 94¢ $33 37d
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May? BUY No 99¢ $33 39d
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May? BUY No 99¢ $29 46d
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May? BUY No 99¢ $29 50d
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 55d
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 62d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 100¢ $100 62d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17? BUY Down 100¢ $58 65d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17? BUY Down 100¢ $92 65d
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 SELL Yes 24¢ $17 67d
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 BUY Yes 100¢ $70 75d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $93 82d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $5 82d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $28 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 86d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $12 89d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $80 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $35 97d
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $53 103d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? BUY No 100¢ $56 109d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? BUY No 97¢ $22 109d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? BUY No 97¢ $10 109d
Will Iran strike Oman in March? BUY Yes 99¢ $144 110d
Will Iran strike Oman in March? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 110d
Will Iran strike Oman in March? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY No 100¢ $210 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.32 · official $182.32 (match) · 397 history records