Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc25e…15e1 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-20%) realized −$41 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$6
world 16% $0
politics 11% −$25
other 3% −$3
weather 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +29.3% +17.0% 67% 67% +25.6%
≤30d 3 +29.3% +17.0% 67% 67% +25.6%
≤90d 14 -39.1% -44.9% 29% 29% -25.0%
all 14 -39.1% -44.9% 29% 29% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.9% 29% -25.0%
10% -50.2% 29% -32.1%
15% -55.0% 29% -38.7%
20% -59.4% 21% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage72d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $30 +$20 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$25 +123%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Trump say "China" this week? May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $14 +$32 +226%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 30 $25 +$10 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 12? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $30 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $45 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 56¢ $18 47h
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Trump say "China" this week? BUY No 7¢ $5 34d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo BUY GamerLegion 10¢ $5 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 45d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $31 49d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY GamerLegion 10¢ $5 50d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY FaZe 11¢ $5 50d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B SELL FaZe 100¢ $46 51d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B BUY FaZe 30¢ $14 51d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY G2 22¢ $20 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $35 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 72¢ $25 62d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $10 71d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY No 9¢ $20 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 20 history records