Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc25e…aaca other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$180 (+36%) realized +$176 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +49.0% +34.8% 100% 100% +36.9%
≤30d 2 +49.0% +34.8% 100% 100% +36.9%
≤90d 2 +49.0% +34.8% 100% 100% +36.9%
all 2 +49.0% +34.8% 100% 100% +36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.8% 100% +36.9%
10% +21.9% 100% +23.8%
15% +10.1% 100% +11.8%
20% -0.7% 50% +0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$176
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $210 +$118 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 +$44 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $158 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.98 · official $183.98 (match) · 9 history records