Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc25c…17c8 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$1
world 25% −$1
politics 18% $0
crypto 8% −$1
sports 7% $0
finance 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
all 57 -1.9% -11.3% 30% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage280d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 05 $35 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $1 $0 -39%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 01 $3 +$1 +16%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 29 $9 +$2 +19%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $11 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 28 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 26 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 24 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $8 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $36 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $44 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $20 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $16 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $4 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $40 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 10d
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 256d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 97¢ $30 256d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 97¢ $30 256d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 94¢ $24 256d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 94¢ $6 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.91 · official $43.01 (match) · 246 history records