Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc256…767f other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$15 (+13%) realized +$4 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$10
world 17% +$1
sports 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+70.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +88.0% +70.1% 100% 100% +54.5%
≤30d 2 +88.0% +70.1% 100% 100% +54.5%
≤90d 2 +88.0% +70.1% 100% 100% +54.5%
all 2 +88.0% +70.1% 100% 100% +54.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.1% 100% +54.5%
10% +53.8% 100% +39.7%
15% +38.9% 100% +26.2%
20% +25.3% 100% +13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+72%)
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +114%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 24m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 52m
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 38¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.55 · official $120.55 (match) · 10 history records