Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

C2 0xc251…989e other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$43 (+13%) realized +$29 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+1.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+12.2%	+1.5%	67%	67%	-14.4%
≤30d	3	+12.2%	+1.5%	67%	67%	-14.4%
≤90d	3	+12.2%	+1.5%	67%	67%	-14.4%
all	3	+12.2%	+1.5%	67%	67%	-14.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.5%	67%	-14.4%
10%	-8.2%	67%	-22.6%
15%	-17.0%	33%	-30.0%
20%	-25.2%	33%	-36.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$36 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.79 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$208

Realized+$29

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$100	$114	+$15 (+15%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$94	$94	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$91	−$36	-40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$51	+$27	+54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$95	19m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	43¢	$54	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$91	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Up	86¢	$6	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$102	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.94 · official $207.94 (match) · 10 history records