Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc24f…220b crypto 453 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$305 (+4%) realized +$346 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%198W / 171L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$62
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$140
crypto 43% +$179
other 9% −$146
world 1% +$1
sports 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.1% +5.0% 57% 36% -0.3%
≤30d 17 +9.0% -1.3% 53% 35% -0.4%
≤90d 369 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 50% -5.6%
all 369 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 50% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 50% -5.6%
10% -16.2% 47% -14.6%
15% -24.3% 40% -22.9%
20% -31.7% 28% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,478
Realized+$346
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses198 / 171
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions84
Markets (closed)369 / 453
History coverage78d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $199 $198 −$1 (-1%)
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 95¢ 95¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No 85¢ 88¢ $113 $116 +$3 (+2%)
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $110 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 89¢ 87¢ $109 $106 −$3 (-2%)
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? No 94¢ 99¢ $99 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 96¢ 100¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+4%)
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? No 87¢ 100¢ $69 $79 +$10 (+15%)
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $53 $77 +$24 (+44%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more? No 84¢ 100¢ $60 $71 +$12 (+20%)
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? Yes 79¢ 87¢ $59 $65 +$6 (+10%)
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $60 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will Alex Villanueva win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? No 85¢ 88¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? Yes 32¢ 52¢ $33 $53 +$20 (+61%)
Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 86¢ 98¢ $44 $50 +$6 (+14%)
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $40 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 95¢ 100¢ $41 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $42 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 46¢ 46¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MLP New York: Carolina Hogs vs Brooklyn Pickleball Team Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $35 +$5 +14%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 26 $32 +$38 +116%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 24 $112 +$8 +7%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 24 $18 $0 +2%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $29 +$67 +234%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $216 −$5 -2%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +335%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an Jun 21 $7 +$1 +14%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $19 +$13 +68%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $11 −$4 -39%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 22 $8 +$3 +40%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 22 $15 +$6 +42%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4AM ET Apr 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 19 $12 +$4 +38%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 19 $10 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 19 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 19 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2AM ET Apr 19 $27 −$4 -14%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 19 $11 +$5 +49%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8PM ET Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 19 $15 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 18 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$13 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 18 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 18 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 18 $8 +$4 +48%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 18 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$13 +453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 18 $16 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 18 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$18 +425%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Villanueva win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election? BUY No 85¢ $55 58m
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? BUY Yes 88¢ $59 1h
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 1h
Will Mo Ivory win the 2026 Fulton Commission Chair election? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 2h
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY No 58¢ $3 9h
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $56 10h
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 19¢ $4 10h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 67¢ $6 11h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 68¢ $25 11h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 68¢ $12 11h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 34¢ $78 11h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY No 65¢ $11 12h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 51¢ $100 12h
French election called by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $16 12h
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 12h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY No 13¢ $3 21h
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nom BUY No 98¢ $22 26h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 79¢ $60 27h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 34h
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY No 22¢ $7 34h
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY No 20¢ $15 34h
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 17¢ $4 40h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY No 46¢ $40 40h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 9¢ $14 40h
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 42h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $63 43h
Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of BUY No 86¢ $45 45h
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,478.31 · official $2,477.32 (match) · 1368 history records